Is it possible to defeat a country by destroying their cities?
No: Spanish Civil War:
Despite the world’s horror at the 1937 German bombing of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War, commemorated by artist Pablo Picasso in his 1937 painting, the Germans realized how useless attacks were on non-combatants, and instead focused their scarce air power resources on achieving victory on the battlefield by supporting the army’s advance, which was much faster in producing results, and consequently cheaper.
Ukraine Can Beat Russia in the Bombardment War of Attrition | RealClearDefense
No: World War Two:
The victorious allies in World War II did emphasize a strategy of heavily bombing cities, which is part of why countries have come to repeat this so many times since. Cities including Dresden and Tokyo were devastated, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and forcing millions into homelessness. Still, historians generally now argue that, even if that did play some role in exhausting those countries, it was largely because of damage to German and Japanese industrial output rather than the terror it caused... German leaders had hoped that turning whole blocks of London into rubble would inspire Britons to turn against the leaders who insisted on staying in the war. But British approval of their government rose to near 90%.Bombing Kyiv into submission? History says it won’t work. | The Japan Times
No: Hiroshima:
We know that some of Truman’s closest advisers viewed the bomb as a diplomatic and not simply a military weapon. Secretary of State James Byrnes, for instance, believed that the use of atomic weapons would help the United States more strongly dominate the postwar era. According to Manhattan Project scientist Leo Szilard, who met with Byrnes on May 28, 1945, “[Byrnes] was concerned about Russia’s postwar behavior…[and thought] that Russia might be more manageable if impressed by American military might, and that a demonstration of the bomb might impress Russia.”The War Was Won Before Hiroshima—And the Generals Who Dropped the Bomb Knew It | The Nation
The Soviet declaration of war changed the calculation of how much time was left for maneuver. Japanese intelligence was predicting that U.S. forces might not invade for months. Soviet forces, on the other hand, could be in Japan proper in as little as 10 days. The Bomb Didn’t Beat Japan … Stalin Did – Foreign Policy
No: Vietnam War:
Operation Rolling Thunder, which was implemented by President Lyndon Johnson and designed to be a ceaseless and relentless bombing campaign against North Vietnam, was ultimately regarded as ineffective.strategic bombing | military tactic | Britannica
No: Asymmetrical War:
Insurgent groups have likewise adapted this tactic, to little more success. Northern Irish groups struck repeatedly in London, hoping to dispel British commitment to the territory. Instead, the bombings led to more severe measures by British authorities in Northern Ireland. Palestinian groups that ignited bus and cafe bombs in Israeli cities during a period of conflict in the 2000s found much the same result.
Bombing Kyiv into submission? History says it won’t work. | The Japan Times
No: Syrian Civil War:
After the Assad regime crushed a rebellion by Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islamists in 1982, it sought to demobilize both its religious and secular opponents by dismantling the Muslim Brotherhood, coopting potential opponents, infiltrating and splintering opposition groups, and sponsoring small Salafi militant networks. In short, Syrian state policy atomized civil society in the decades prior to 2011. When Syrians rose in rebellion for a second time in 2011, they did so from scattered pockets of opposition, not from a single cross-cutting social base like the Muslim Brotherhood. This, in turn, led to today’s intensely fragmented civil war.How Assad Won the Syrian Civil War Before It Began - Political Violence at a Glance
No: overall:
Civilian victimization was not relevant to victory or defeat in cases such as the Boxer Rebellion, ethnic cleansing in the First Balkan War, Turkey in World War I, the Greco-Turkish War, the Soviet Union in World War II, and Armenia–Azerbaijan, but in some other cases it may have contributed to the victory.Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War | Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict | MIT Press Scholarship Online | Oxford Academic
No: Ukraine War:
Russia Bombing Kyiv Civilians Won't Help Putin Win Ukraine - Bloomberg
Why Airpower Can't Salvage Russia’s Doomed War in Ukraine
Former Estonian Military Chief: 'Ukraine Has Already Won' In War With Russia
the prevailing historical evidence is that for Ukraine to win the war, it must paradoxically maneuver to ensure that Moscow continues its barrage of missiles against civilian, rather than military targets. The demand for victory in the air defense war is primarily driven by the political imperative to reduce suffering among Ukraine’s civilian population, but carried through to its logical conclusion, it will prove prohibitively expensive. This imperative is also the result of four common miscalculations of the effects of bombing.Ukraine Can Beat Russia in the Bombardment War of Attrition | RealClearDefense
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