Saturday, 1 August 2020

coronavirus and populism

Several 'populist' politicians have caught the coronavirus - as reported in the Sun today:

There are concerns that the current crisis will be used by 'populists':

Others would say it's a crisis which so-called populists can't handle:

Here's the view of the New European:

Given the massive surge of conspiracy theories that have circulated online in the past few months, there has been concern that another surge in anti-establishment xenophobic politics is on the cards for Europe. The worry has been that the far right will make gains again as a result. But, so far, it seems this crisis has not actually been particularly “profitable” for these groups. In fact, they seem to be floundering.
In Germany, the far-right AfD openly embraced conspiracy theories. Its members claimed Angela Merkel’s lockdown measures were unnecessary.
This initially gained traction among a public trying to adapt to a strange new way of life. But the AfD were quickly seen to have painted themselves into a corner when it became clear that Germany’s lockdown was producing the desired effect and infections were dropping.
The AfD has lost a significant amount of support during the pandemic, sliding from around 15% approval in pre-coronavirus polls to something more like 9% now. This is a blow to German ultranationalists.
Meanwhile, in Italy, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League party, has found it very hard to hold the attention of the national media – which is a new experience for him. The League’s messaging has been confusing. In late February, the party initially called for the partially locked down region of Lombardy to be re-opened but then later demanded a full lockdown. The news website Politico’s analysis of opinion polling in Italy shows that the League’s popularity is down 11% from last summer...

And it does seem that 'populists' in power are handling things very badly:

Here's the view this week from Deutsche Welle on 'the World King':

Opinion: Boris Johnson — from 'world king' to bumbling failure
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has marked one year in office, stumbling from one mishap to another. Nothing runs smoothly for him, and there are no achievements whatsoever, writes Birgit Maass.
24.07.2020
He got divorced, engaged, fathered a son and narrowly escaped death — in between, he led the UK out of the EU and fought a pandemic — all within just one year.
Indeed, Boris Johnson has had a lot to handle after assuming his dream job. As a boy, he had always wanted to be "world king," writes his sister, Rachel Johnson, in her family biography. His role model was the former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill. In 2014, Johnson even published a book about his predecessor.
One thing, however, is becoming increasingly clear: Johnson is unable to deal with the challenges facing him. He is a populist, a man of grandiose gestures, as opposed to a prudent ruler who navigates his country through crises, his hands firmly on the steering wheel. His empty promises and smoke-and-mirrors approach are debauching the country — a state of affairs now deplored even by die-hard conservatives...

It seems to be the case the world over:

Chaotic, combative style of populist leaders has failed in pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic has tested the resolve of governments throughout the world and it has exposed the failings of populist leadership, writes ANTHONY ANGELINI
24.07.2020 10:12
IN THE midst of the current Covid-19 crisis, a number of countries have reacted responsibly and effectively. Germany, New Zealand and South Korea have shown how the virus can be pushed back; through the combination of medical expertise and organised, efficient governance.
However, there are some countries whose governments have failed to stem the tide. The United States, Brazil and the United Kingdom are among the countries with the highest death and infection rates.
The U.S leads the world with Coronavirus cases, with 3.37 million cases and over 137,000 deaths. Brazil has the highest case numbers in South America with approximately 1.87 million cases and 73,000 deaths. The UK has topped the number of cases and deaths in Europe with 290,000 cases and approximately 45,000 deaths...
These three leaders were elected as disruptors to change the status quo and bring down the old administrative state, but destroying institutions is much easier than building them up. When confronted with obstacles, these leaders have intentionally side stepped traditional political structures. They have instead chosen to construct alternative realities that explain away any source of political discomfort. As a result, bad news is treated as lies (or fake news) and the distributors of this news are attacked as unpatriotic or as tools of some larger globalist agenda.
The political successes of this new wave of populist leaders have been built on a distrust of authority; associating expertise and intellectualism with elitism. These leaders have also knowingly embraced conspiracy theories. In his 2017 book, the Death of Expertise, the author Timothy Nichols, warned of the danger this kind of thinking can have on the US populace: “The issue is not indifference to established knowledge; it’s the emergence of a positive hostility to such knowledge. This is new in American culture, and it represents the aggressive replacement of expert views or established knowledge with the insistence that every opinion on any matter is as good as every other. This is a remarkable change in our public discourse. This change is not only unprecedented, but dangerous”.
This denialism is not just an American issue, it has grown and infected politics across the world. Conspiracy theorists litter the internet with outlandish theories that Covid 19 is a creation of the “global elite”; designed to expand government control. This seeding of distrust in objective facts and authority has made it more difficulty to implement effective, life-saving public initiatives.
At an event to present her country’s priorities for its six month EU Presidency, German Chancellor Angela Merkel highlighted the inability of populist rhetoric to counter the reality of the pandemic: “We are seeing at the moment that the pandemic can’t be fought with lies and disinformation, and neither can it be with hatred and agitation,” she said. “Fact-denying populism is being shown its limits. In a democracy, facts and transparency are needed.”
The inflammatory, emotion driven rhetoric that underpinned the election campaigns of Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson is starkly contrasted by the cold, hard reality of a global pandemic. Controlling the virus involves co-ordinating local and national government; keeping the public informed with clear advice and constantly re-examining the government response to improve its efficiency. Errors are there to be learned from, not to be ignored.
The chaotic, combative style of the populists, built around an us versus them narrative, has proven to be completely unsuited to the current crisis. These leaders presented themselves as men of the people, fighting for the disenfranchised, but through a combination of incompetence and wilful ignorance, their response to the virus threatens the lives of the very people they claimed to represent.

So, 'populism' was always going to have a problem with 'experts' and their 'science':

Populist leaders struggle to fight coronavirus; experts link it to distrust of science
By John Daniszawski The Associated Press
Posted July 23, 2020
The countries that top the rankings of COVID-19 deaths globally are not necessarily the poorest, the richest, or even the most densely populated. But they do have one thing in common: They are led by populist, mold-breaking leaders.
Populism in politics means pushing policies that are popular with “the people,” not the elites and the experts. The United States’ Donald Trump, Britain’s Boris Johnson and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, as well as India’s Narendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, have surged to power in democratic countries, challenging the old order by promising social benefits to the masses and rejecting the establishment.
READ MORE: Canada, U.S. tourist boats at Niagara Falls highlight difference in coronavirus battle
But it turns out that when it comes to battling a new disease like COVID-19, the disruptive policies of populists are faring poorly compared to liberal democratic models in countries like Germany, France and Iceland in Europe, or South Korea and Japan in Asia.
Academics have been fretting about whether liberal democracy — the political system that helped defeat fascism in World War II, set up international institutions like the World Health Organization and seemed to have triumphed in the Cold War three decades ago — can muster the stuff to take on the new populism and address complex 21st-century challenges.
COVID-19 has crystallized that dilemma.
“This is a public health crisis that requires expertise and science to resolve. Populists by nature … have a disdain for experts and science that are seen as part of the establishment,” says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. He was discussing Brazil, where at least 81,000 people have died.
“Brazil has a wealth of expertise and the U.S. does, too,” Shifter says. “But the problem is, the populist politics makes it very difficult to implement rational policies that really resolve the issue — or at least manage the crisis more effectively.”
The United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Mexico all are led by leaders who have been skeptical of scientists and who initially minimized the disease. These four countries account for half of the 618,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide so far, according to statistics tracked by Johns Hopkins University. India, meanwhile, is coming on strong. It just passed the mark of 1.2 million confirmed cases...
Populist leaders struggle to fight coronavirus; experts link it to distrust of science - National | Globalnews.ca

But: in a word of caution, once the economy starts to get really bad, then opportunists will take advantage:

Why Populism Can Survive the Pandemic
ROSA BALFOUR JULY 15, 2020
Summary: Countries with populist governments have been especially badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic. But beware: the virus is unlikely to kill off populism. To rid the world of populism, its root causes must be addressed.
Reshaping European Democracy
Bolsonaro, Johnson, Salvini, Trump. Erdoğan, Kaczyński, Le Pen. Modi, Orbán, Putin. Some of these global leaders are populists; some have authoritarian streaks; others are authoritarians using populism to consolidate power. Some will be booted out after their disastrous mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic. Others will stay, and new ones will arrive.
Given the poor performance of many populist governments in dealing with the coronavirus, populism looks like it could be magically swept away. But such wishful thinking ignores the reasons for the rise of populism and its likely endurance. To rid the world of populism, its root causes must be addressed...

Why Populism Can Survive the Pandemic - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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